Tool 02 — Free, no sign-up
Wishlist to revenue.
Back-of-napkin, but the napkin belongs to someone who has shipped. Uses the wishlist-conversion model most indies see on Steam. Adjust everything.
Every slider is in the link. Send it instead of a screenshot.
Inputs
Outstanding wishlists on the day you press the button.
Sticker price before the launch discount.
Typical indie range: 8–20%. Casual skews low, hyped skews high.
Units sold divided by wishlist conversions. Discovery queue, tags, streamers.
Seasonal sales carry most of it. 2.5–4× is normal.
Regional prices average 65–75% of USD. Refunds run 8–12%.
How the model works
- Week-1 wishlist buyers = wishlists × conversion.
- Week-1 total units = wishlist buyers × organic multiplier.
- Year-1 units = week-1 units × year-1 multiplier.
- Gross = units × price × (1 − discount), with the same discount as a blended average for later sales.
- Net = gross × (1 − platform cut) × (1 − VAT / refund / regional leakage).
A planning tool, not a promise. The median Steam game earns far less than these defaults suggest. Put your own wishlist count in and be honest about conversion.